I was just reading Susan McQaudes article "Election-Projection-269-269" . If you haven't seen that one yet, you can read it here. She quite accurately points out that there are a few reasonable scenarios where we can end up in an electoral tie.
After the election of 2000, where Al gore won the populat vote but lost the electoral vote the question has been asked "Why don't we just do a popular vote?"
In their great wisdom our founding fathers established the electoral process to keep any one or two states from having too much of a say on the national elections.
Imagine this scenario. It is the election of 2000, which by every account was an extremely close race. Al Gore wins 49 states by a clear but narrow margin of 10,000 votes. That would be an average. some states he wins by more and some by less. But after counting those 49 states Al gore leads by 490,000 votes.
But wait ... George Bush is the Governor of the highly populated state of Texas. His actual winning margin in Texas in 2000 was over 1,000,000 votes! If that scenario would have played out then George Bush would have won the popular vote and Al Gore goes back home after winning a majority in 49 states.
The reality is that it would never play out exactly like that, but hopefully you get the picture.
If you are interested you can see electoral map projections based on data from multiple polls at RealClearPolitics.com.
Here is the link to the poll showing toss up states http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
Here is a link showing the electoral map if you take the polls straight up without factoring toss ups http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
On the second map you can also go in and create you rown map by changing any state to vote for the other candidate. Hint: John McCain has always done very well in Hew Hampshire. Change the outcome in NH and see where the electoral vote is!
Bob Southard, e-ProRealtor®, Solid Source Realty, Inc.Buy or sell a home in Powder Springs, Marietta, Kennesaw, Acworth, Dallas, Hiram, Cobb County, Paulding County, Douglas County, North Fulton County, South Cherokee County
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