Local Real Estate Comments and Ramblings

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Think unemployment is "only" 8.5% ... Guess again

Unemployment is around 8.5% and that is about the same as it was in the 1980"s .... right?

Not quite. It seems that there are actually different number reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Up until the the mid 1990's the number that was commonly reported or quoted was the "U6" number.  "U6" a broad figure that includes people that have been unemployed so long that they have basically given up or taken very low paying or part time jobs just to have some sort of income.  So in the mid 80's we had a "U6" unemployment of about

@8%


In the mid 1990's the way of reporting was changed to use a much narrower "U3" number.  This is the figure that is most often quoted today and reflects the 8.5% (or so) figure that is considered today's unemployment rate.  8.5% was the "official" figure that came out in Early April.  However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics still tracks the "U6" number as well.  You just don't hear about it.

If you want to compare "apples to apples" then you need to look at the "U6" number as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And what was the recent "U6" number .......



15.6%   - ouch

Martin Weiss, PHD has written an excellent article that in to much more detail. As a matter of fact he believes that the true unemployment rate goes beyond even the "U6" number. Here is a link to the entire article.

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Bob Southard, e-Pro, Realtor ®, Solid Source Realty, Inc. Buy a home, Sell a home, in Powder Springs, Marietta, Kennesaw, Acworth, Dallas, Hiram,and Cobb, Paulding, Douglas, North Fulton, South Cherokee, County, Ga. Call me for all of your real estate needs.

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Comment balloon 7 commentsBob Southard • April 10 2009 12:34PM

Comments

Bob, I posted a blog about that last week.  The current unemployment figures don't count people who took parttime work because they couldnt find fulltime, and it doesnt count people who exhausted their benefits and have dropped off the rolls.  15.6% is probably the more realistic number.  Ouch is right!

Posted by Terry Haugen STAGE it RIGHT! 321-956-2495 (Stage it Right!) almost 11 years ago

Bob I just heard something on a talk radio show about these figures this am.  They said the 80's numbers where 10% + and now it is closer to 8.5%.  So I don't know...........sometimes there is so much information out there.

Enjoy your Easter Bob! 

Easter Banana

Posted by Anna Banana Kruchten Broker/Owner, CRB, CRS, 602-380-4886 (Phoenix Property Shoppe) almost 11 years ago

We all must remember that real estate is mostly localized.   In the 80's we wished we had only 8% in Texas.  Here in Austin we are now lucky with unemployment at just over 6%....and actual domestic growth over the last 12 months.  That may all come to a halt this year....but areas from one part of Austin to another differ....one city to another and one state to another.  Hopefully this confidence improvement will continue....  Cheers........

Posted by TIM MONCRIEF, Over 2,000 homes sold….. (Tim Monciref) almost 11 years ago

If only we could find statistics that reflected the way things are as opposed to whatever agenda we need them to support.

Posted by Charles Buell, Seattle Home Inspector (Charles Buell Inspections Inc.) almost 11 years ago

Unemployment is hitting us hard in South Carolina.  I believe we have the highest rate in the nation.

Posted by Troy Ott (Coldwell Banker United, REALTORS) almost 11 years ago

Hi Bob

Thanks for sharing the information; I agree with you the numbers being reported on unemployment are no correct.

Good luck and success

Lou Ludwig

Posted by Lou Ludwig, Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC (Ludwig & Associates) almost 11 years ago

Bob - unfortunately, I don't think we've hit bottom yet. The media has made Obama too big to fail and are covering his butt to avoid further panic and further erosion of his approval numbers.  It's interesting to think back to when Clinton was elected and the 'worst economy in 50 years" instantly improved.....but never improved under Bush, no matter that unemployment fell to 4.3% and GDP was steadily climbing until last year.

Posted by Susan McQuaide (Keller Williams) almost 11 years ago

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